Monday, March 30, 2020

Saudis not backing down on oil production

Saudi Arabia isn't backing down from the oil price war for market share, pledging another increase in its crude oil exports starting in May, despite a growing global glut amid crashing demand. “The Kingdom intends to increase its crude oil exports, starting from May, by about 600k barrels per day, bringing the total of Saudi petroleum exports to 10.6m barrels per day.” Today the rumor is about federal aid for the oil patch. Throwing public money at a chronic problem with no economic redemption is a fool's game.
At current crude prices Canadian producers aren't worth saving. In 2014 it was estimated $65 WTI per barrel crude was required to break even. Today that break-even price may have fallen to the $45 WTI per barrel range.

A massive taxpayer bail-out is doomed as there is no case possible to 'protect' jobs that serve no economic function. The 'aid' would need to be permanent and that makes even less sense. Demand is falling off a cliff, and a quick recovery seems unlikely.